Markets
Head-to-head (h2h) markets in betting — explained
A head-to-head (h2h) market is a two-way market in which you back one of two competitors to win, with no other outcomes. In AFL, NRL and most other AU football codes, h2h covers home win and away win — draws are settled separately or refunded, depending on the operator's rules.
"H2H" or "head-to-head" is the most basic sports market and the easiest to compare between bookmakers. Because there are only two prices in the book, the overround is straightforward to calculate — and the difference between two operators is usually visible at a glance.
AFL and NRL both use h2h as the headline market, alongside the line and totals markets. Cricket uses h2h for limited-overs matches; in Test cricket, where draws are common, "match betting" usually has three prices (home, away, draw).
Because both sides of an h2h market move when one moves, watching h2h drift is one of the simplest ways to spot a bookmaker that hasn't kept up with the market. If most operators have a team at $1.85 and one is still publishing $2.05, the lagging operator is the one out of step — and that gap closes quickly once volume finds it.
Worked example
An AFL match has the Bulldogs at $1.91 head-to-head and Hawthorn at $1.91 — a "pick'em" market. Implied probabilities: 52.4% each, summing to 104.7%. The overround is 4.7% — typical for a sharp h2h book on a major code.
By comparison, a side market in the same game (e.g. winning margin) might run at 115%+ overround because it has many more outcomes and gets less competitive pricing pressure.
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